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Rainfall Variability and Linear Trend Models on North-West Part of Bangladesh for the Last 40 Years

Received: 26 February 2016     Accepted: 13 May 2016     Published: 4 June 2016
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Abstract

Rainfall has been extensively considered as one of the initial point towards the apprehension of climate change courses. Bangladesh is recently experiencing climate change impact related to hazards like cyclone, rainfall, flood, draught etc. Climate variable like rainfall is the most important parameter which is linked with agricultural aspects too for this country. Most of the rain occurred during monsoon period in Bangladesh. This study investigates temporal variability of rainfall and liner trend models on the North-West part of Bangladesh over the period of 1975-2014 using data from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department. We computed and analyzed the linear trend models by using least square estimation. We estimated mean with standard deviation, cross-correlation and linear trends of annual and monsoon rainfall using MS Excel and SPSS v21. The variability of rainfall between the stations was measured by correlation test. The annual and monsoon rainfall has been found in decreasing trends in recent times. In some areas in the North-Western part of the country, the amount of annual and monsoon mean rainfall may be decreased abruptly comparing with average normal rainfall all over the country. The linear trend analysis of rainfall reveals a bit different trend for the last four decades. The observed data and linear trend line shows the decreasing trend of annual rainfall rate is 0.102 mm per year, whereas the decreasing trend of monsoon season rainfall rate is 0.080 mm per year. The time series statistical analysis of this study also provided the information about the correlation coefficients of rainfall among the selected five stations of the South-West region. The result of this study would hopefully help the planners and program managers to take necessary actions and to measure disaster management, agricultural production, drought mitigation, flood control etc.

Published in American Journal of Applied Mathematics (Volume 4, Issue 3)
DOI 10.11648/j.ajam.20160403.16
Page(s) 158-162
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2016. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Variability, Linear Trend, Rainfall, Correlation, North-West, Bangladesh

References
[1] McCarthy, J. J., O. Canziani, N. A. Leary, D. J. Dokken, and K. S. White, (2001), “Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability”, IPCC Working Group II, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
[2] Swart, R., J. Robinson, and S. Cohen, (2003),“Climate Change and Sustainable Development: Expanding the Options”, Climate Policy 3(1), S19-S40
[3] Smit, B., and O. Pilifosova, (2001), “Adaptation to Climate Change in the Context of Sustainable Development and Equity”, Chapter 18 in McCarthy, J. J., O. Canziani, N. A. Leary, D. J. Dokken, and K. S. White, “Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability - Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
[4] Abdullah, H. M. and M. M. Rahman, (2015), “Initiating rain water harvest technology for climate change induced drought resilient agriculture: scopes and challenges in Bangladesh”, Journal of Agriculture and Environment for International Development, Vol. 109, No. 2, P: 189-208.
[5] Endo, N., J. Matsumoto, T. Hayashi, T. Terao, F. Murata, M. Kiguchi, Y. Yamane and M. S. Alam, (2015), “Trends in Precipitation Characteristics in Bangladesh from 1950 to 2008”, SOLA, Vol. 11, P: 113−117.
[6] GOV. UK., (2011), “Climate: Observations, projections and impacts”, In: CENTRE, M. O. H. (ed.). UK.
[7] Smith, J. B., S. H. Schneider, M. Oppenheimer, G. W. Yohe, W. Hare, M. Mastranrea, D. Patwardhan, A. Burton, I. Corfee-Morlot and C. H., MAGADZA, (2009),“Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)“reasons for concern”. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106: P. 4133-4137.
[8] Shahid S. and H. Behrawan, (2008), “Drought risk assessment in the western part of Bangladesh”, Natural Hazards, Vol. 46, No. 3: P. 391–413.
[9] Shahid S. (2008), “Spatial and temporal characteristics of droughts in the western part of Bangladesh”, Hydrological Processes, Vol. 22, No. 13: P. 2235–2247.
[10] Hasan, Z., S. Akter and M. Islam, (2014), “Climate Change and Trend of Rainfall in the South-East Part of Coastal Bangladesh”, European scientific Journal, Vol. 10, No 2: P. 25-39.
[11] Devkota, L. P., (2006), “Rainfall over SAARC region with special focus on tele-connections and long range forecasting of Bangladesh monsoon rainfall, monsoon forecasting with a limited area numerical weather prediction system”, Report No-19, Published by SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), Dhaka, Bangladesh.
[12] Ahasan, M. N., M. A. M. Chowdhury, and D. A. Quadir, (2008), “Few aspects of the flood disaster caused by heavy rainfall over Bangladesh”, Proceedings of SAARC Seminar on Application of Weather and Climate Forecasts in the Socio-economic Development and Disaster Mitigation, P.79-94.
[13] McLach lan, G. J. and T. Krishnan, (1997), “The EM Algorithm and Extensions”, Wiley, New York City, New York.
Cite This Article
  • APA Style

    M. Anisur Rahman, S. M. Mostafa Kamal, M. Maruf Billah. (2016). Rainfall Variability and Linear Trend Models on North-West Part of Bangladesh for the Last 40 Years. American Journal of Applied Mathematics, 4(3), 158-162. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajam.20160403.16

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    ACS Style

    M. Anisur Rahman; S. M. Mostafa Kamal; M. Maruf Billah. Rainfall Variability and Linear Trend Models on North-West Part of Bangladesh for the Last 40 Years. Am. J. Appl. Math. 2016, 4(3), 158-162. doi: 10.11648/j.ajam.20160403.16

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    AMA Style

    M. Anisur Rahman, S. M. Mostafa Kamal, M. Maruf Billah. Rainfall Variability and Linear Trend Models on North-West Part of Bangladesh for the Last 40 Years. Am J Appl Math. 2016;4(3):158-162. doi: 10.11648/j.ajam.20160403.16

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  • @article{10.11648/j.ajam.20160403.16,
      author = {M. Anisur Rahman and S. M. Mostafa Kamal and M. Maruf Billah},
      title = {Rainfall Variability and Linear Trend Models on North-West Part of Bangladesh for the Last 40 Years},
      journal = {American Journal of Applied Mathematics},
      volume = {4},
      number = {3},
      pages = {158-162},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ajam.20160403.16},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajam.20160403.16},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ajam.20160403.16},
      abstract = {Rainfall has been extensively considered as one of the initial point towards the apprehension of climate change courses. Bangladesh is recently experiencing climate change impact related to hazards like cyclone, rainfall, flood, draught etc. Climate variable like rainfall is the most important parameter which is linked with agricultural aspects too for this country. Most of the rain occurred during monsoon period in Bangladesh. This study investigates temporal variability of rainfall and liner trend models on the North-West part of Bangladesh over the period of 1975-2014 using data from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department. We computed and analyzed the linear trend models by using least square estimation. We estimated mean with standard deviation, cross-correlation and linear trends of annual and monsoon rainfall using MS Excel and SPSS v21. The variability of rainfall between the stations was measured by correlation test. The annual and monsoon rainfall has been found in decreasing trends in recent times. In some areas in the North-Western part of the country, the amount of annual and monsoon mean rainfall may be decreased abruptly comparing with average normal rainfall all over the country. The linear trend analysis of rainfall reveals a bit different trend for the last four decades. The observed data and linear trend line shows the decreasing trend of annual rainfall rate is 0.102 mm per year, whereas the decreasing trend of monsoon season rainfall rate is 0.080 mm per year. The time series statistical analysis of this study also provided the information about the correlation coefficients of rainfall among the selected five stations of the South-West region. The result of this study would hopefully help the planners and program managers to take necessary actions and to measure disaster management, agricultural production, drought mitigation, flood control etc.},
     year = {2016}
    }
    

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  • TY  - JOUR
    T1  - Rainfall Variability and Linear Trend Models on North-West Part of Bangladesh for the Last 40 Years
    AU  - M. Anisur Rahman
    AU  - S. M. Mostafa Kamal
    AU  - M. Maruf Billah
    Y1  - 2016/06/04
    PY  - 2016
    N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajam.20160403.16
    DO  - 10.11648/j.ajam.20160403.16
    T2  - American Journal of Applied Mathematics
    JF  - American Journal of Applied Mathematics
    JO  - American Journal of Applied Mathematics
    SP  - 158
    EP  - 162
    PB  - Science Publishing Group
    SN  - 2330-006X
    UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ajam.20160403.16
    AB  - Rainfall has been extensively considered as one of the initial point towards the apprehension of climate change courses. Bangladesh is recently experiencing climate change impact related to hazards like cyclone, rainfall, flood, draught etc. Climate variable like rainfall is the most important parameter which is linked with agricultural aspects too for this country. Most of the rain occurred during monsoon period in Bangladesh. This study investigates temporal variability of rainfall and liner trend models on the North-West part of Bangladesh over the period of 1975-2014 using data from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department. We computed and analyzed the linear trend models by using least square estimation. We estimated mean with standard deviation, cross-correlation and linear trends of annual and monsoon rainfall using MS Excel and SPSS v21. The variability of rainfall between the stations was measured by correlation test. The annual and monsoon rainfall has been found in decreasing trends in recent times. In some areas in the North-Western part of the country, the amount of annual and monsoon mean rainfall may be decreased abruptly comparing with average normal rainfall all over the country. The linear trend analysis of rainfall reveals a bit different trend for the last four decades. The observed data and linear trend line shows the decreasing trend of annual rainfall rate is 0.102 mm per year, whereas the decreasing trend of monsoon season rainfall rate is 0.080 mm per year. The time series statistical analysis of this study also provided the information about the correlation coefficients of rainfall among the selected five stations of the South-West region. The result of this study would hopefully help the planners and program managers to take necessary actions and to measure disaster management, agricultural production, drought mitigation, flood control etc.
    VL  - 4
    IS  - 3
    ER  - 

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Author Information
  • Department of Mathematics, Islamic University, Kushtia, Bangladesh

  • Department of Mathematics, Islamic University, Kushtia, Bangladesh

  • Department of Mathematics, Islamic University, Kushtia, Bangladesh

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